Blessed Friday evening, dear faithful and football fanatics!

The Caprice is gone.

It left on Tuesday afternoon, up the drive and onto the Pacific Coast Highway, inside an enclosed trailer behind a pickup with Texas plates. The gentleman who bought it played a sport professionally for long enough that Novice Clare knew who he was before he'd shut the truck door. He has asked not to be named, and Mother Superior has ruled that in this house he'll be referred to only as "the gentleman from Texas." Clare has been sworn to silence and is taking it harder than obedience.

I didn't recognize him. Sister Immaculata didn't either, and if she had, it wouldn't have changed her price.

He walked around the car twice, then opened the driver's door and looked for a long time. Last Monday I wondered aloud whether anybody in College Station would need to explain those colors to him.

"Somebody in this house went to LSU," he said.

"They were on sale," said Immaculata.

He laughed, and loaded it himself. She stood at the edge of the forecourt with her arms folded until the trailer turned north, and then she went into the garage and didn't come out until Vespers. On Wednesday morning there were roofers on the valley over the sacristy.

So the forecourt is empty, the hoist is greased, and since Tuesday Immaculata has spent every spare hour at the Rock of Impeccable Reception. I'll get to what she's doing out there.

Saturday is Halloween, Sunday is All Saints, and the clocks fall back an hour early Sunday morning.

My Tigers are off. So are Alabama, Tennessee and Texas A&M, which means Novice Clare has nothing to defend this week. LSU plays Alabama on November 7, and she has stopped discussing it, which in Clare is a sign of nerves.

What's left is a strange board. Ohio State plays in the Coliseum, thirty-odd miles from this desk, without its quarterback. Miami, the No. 1 team in the country, goes to Chapel Hill. Florida and Georgia meet in Atlanta this year while Jacksonville's stadium is renovated. And Iowa hosts Wisconsin for the hundredth time, at a total so low the sportswriters wrote headlines about the number itself.

There are big gaps between my fair numbers and the market all over this board, and I'm not betting most of them.

Julian Sayin injured his throwing arm against Indiana on October 17 and is out indefinitely. Ohio State had a bye to prepare for life without him, and Ryan Day hasn't said who starts on Saturday night. His two choices are Luke Fahey, who came on when Sayin went down, and Tavien St. Clair, the five-star freshman from Bellefontaine. "Both will be ready to play," Day said on Wednesday.

The Ohio State Reality: SP+ rates the Buckeyes 28.6 and USC 14.2, which makes the fair line Ohio State by 11.9 after the Trojans' home field. The market has drifted from seven to six and a half. Ohio State's defense rates 10.7, the best unit in this game by a long way.

The USC Crisis: USC lost 24-7 at Wisconsin last week, a game it was never really in. The defense rates 22.4, which is the same unserious defense Los Angeles has been complaining about for a decade.

Why I'm Not Betting the Gap: Five and a half points is the biggest gap on a big game this week, and I'm passing it for the same reason I passed Texas a week ago. The 11.9 was built from games Sayin played. The market has spent two weeks taking him out of the number, and SP+ hasn't. When fair rests on a player who won't be on the field, the gap is just my own number being out of date.

The total has the same problem. Ohio State's offense rates 39.2, and most of that is Sayin.

The Dominic Factor: I need to back up a few days for this.

Since the Caprice left, Sister Immaculata has been out at the Rock every evening, scrolling through car auctions on her phone, and when I walk out at dusk to check lines I have to wait. I asked what she was looking at.

"Nothing yet," she said, and kept scrolling.

She mutters while she scrolls. It's in Italian, the same four or five words, with real feeling, and only at the Fiats. Sister Immaculata does not speak Italian.

Father Dominic does. So at Thursday's oatmeal I repeated the words to him as well as I could and asked whether they were about mechanical reliability.

He put down his spoon. "Where did you hear that?"

"Sister Immaculata. About Fiats."

He was quiet for a moment. "Those are not words about Fiats," he said. "They are about the mothers of the men who designed them. A mechanic says them when the bolt he turns every month is somewhere only a contortionist with a special tool can reach." He declined to translate further in front of a novice.

Then, since he was already in Italian, he gave me his pick for Saturday night in it. "Ohio State, di ventuno. Senza dubbio." He held up two fingers, then one, in case I'd missed it.

So Father Dominic has Ohio State by twenty-one, without a doubt, with a backup quarterback, on the road. The folder grades it Monday. The folder is 3-0 on fading him, and I still don't bet it.

Nobody in this house has asked Immaculata where she learned those words. Nobody is going to.

Sister Mary Catherine's Selection:

"And this is my prayer: that your love may increase ever more and more in knowledge and every kind of perception," - Philippians 1:9

I'll confess the bias first. I love Iowa. I love a team that will punt on second down when it feels the situation calls for it. They're the patron saints of the under, and I mean that with real devotion. Saint Paul didn't pray that the Philippians would love less. He prayed that their love would come with knowledge. That's the standard this bet has to meet.

The Iowa Reality: SP+ rates Iowa 12.4 and Wisconsin 8.7, which makes the fair line Iowa by 6.2 at Kinnick. The market opened at three and a half and has moved to two and a half, and FanDuel is dealing one and a half. Iowa's run defense is fifth in the country, allowing 82.9 yards a game. Iowa has won the last four in this series, the last two by a combined 79-10, and Wisconsin hasn't won in Iowa City since 2018.

The Iowa Crisis: Last Saturday Iowa lost 13-10 at Minnesota in a game its own writers called undisciplined. The quarterback job has changed hands so often that one columnist compared it to a roulette wheel.

The Wisconsin Factor: Wisconsin is 5-2 and ranked, with a road win at Penn State and a 24-7 handling of USC last week. Its defense rates 15.1, essentially even with Iowa's 15.3. Colton Joseph hasn't been a great quarterback, and Wisconsin hasn't needed him to be.

Where the Number Comes From: The roulette wheel isn't news, and every spin is already inside Iowa's rating. Sayin's injury is two weeks old and the rating hasn't seen it. Iowa's trouble is two months old and the rating has seen all of it.

What moved this line was one ugly afternoon in Minneapolis and one good night against USC. That's a story about momentum. The rating includes both games and still says six.

And six means more in this game than it would in most. The total is 36.5, the lowest on the board in the country. In a game with that few points, a field goal is close to a tenth of everything that'll be scored, and three is the most likely margin there is. At -1.5, Iowa covers if it wins by a field goal. At -3.5 it wouldn't.

My Analytical Heart vs. My Hawkeye Devotion: The last time I bet with my heart, on LSU, it won. The two times before that, Vanderbilt and Indiana, it lost. A bet that runs with my feelings needs more edge than one that doesn't, and three and a half points in a 36-point game is real edge. But I'm not pretending it's free of love. It carries the least confidence on the card, and I'm leaving the total alone.

Sister Mary Catherine's Selection:

"The naive believe everything, but the shrewd watch their steps." - Proverbs 14:15

Nobody outside Fort Collins and Logan will watch this game on purpose, which is exactly why nobody has checked its arithmetic.

The Colorado State Reality: The Rams' last three games finished at 82, 93 and 105 points. They beat San Diego State 56-49 last week. Their defense rates 37.0 in SP+, the worst unit of any team I looked at this week, and it has allowed 49 or more four times. That's what built this number.

The Utah State Crisis: Utah State has scored 17, 14, 0, 21, 18, 17 and 17 points. It lost its opener to Idaho State, an FCS team. Its offense rates 17.2, the worst unit on this field after the Rams' defense. And every Utah State game this season has finished at 55 points or fewer, most of them in the thirties.

The Total Analysis: All four units, because that's my rule now. Colorado State's offense rates 28.6 against Utah State's defense at 25.9, and I expect the Rams to score their share. Utah State's offense at 17.2 against Colorado State's defense at 37.0 is the matchup the over is betting on. Give the Aggies their best day of the season against the worst defense they'll see, call it thirty, and you still need the Rams to score thirty-four.

The market has watched three Colorado State shootouts and priced a fourth. That's the naive believing everything.

The kickoff forecast for Logan is fifty degrees, wind out of the southwest at three miles an hour, and a 52 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. There's no wind, and I'm not counting the rain in either direction.

The threat to this bet is plain. The Rams' defense might simply give up 40 to anybody, Utah State included, and the Rams' offense will keep scoring. That's why it's a three and not more.

SP+ also makes Utah State only a 1.7-point favorite, which puts value on Colorado State at 6.5. One game, one opinion, and I trust the total more.

Sister Mary Catherine's Selection:

The Oregon State Reality: The Beavers have won five straight and averaged 50.8 points over their last four games. Braden Atkinson has thrown for 300 yards in seven straight games, and freshman Jesse Legree leads the country with 1,040 receiving yards and 14 touchdown catches. The total has chased that offense from 56.5 to 58.5.

Who They Scored It On: Those four games were UTEP, Colorado State, San Diego State and Washington State. The last three have defenses that rate 37.0, 31.6 and 29.5, and the first of those is the one I'm betting against in Logan. Against the two decent defenses on their schedule, Houston and Texas Tech, the Beavers scored 20 and 24. A run of overs against soft defenses tells you very little about the next defense.

The Total Analysis: Fresno State's defense rates 23.4, better than any of the last three Oregon State has faced, and it has allowed more than 26 points only twice, to USC and Boise State. Oregon State's offense at 31.6 against it is a good offense against a sound defense, and Fresno's offense at 25.7 against the Beavers' 24.7 is an even fight. All four units put this game in the low fifties, and five of Fresno's seven games finished under this number.

The threat is Atkinson. Seven straight 300-yard games don't all come from bad defenses. And this bet makes the same argument as the one in Logan, with one of the same bad defenses in both. If I'm wrong about the argument, I'm wrong twice, so it carries less.

The kickoff forecast is wind at five miles an hour and a 74 percent chance of thunderstorms, and I'm not counting the rain. Fair also likes Fresno State by four and a half points on the side. One game, one opinion.

Sister Mary Catherine's Selection:

No. 17 Florida vs. No. 3 Georgia, in Atlanta (Georgia -12, O/U 56.5): Fair is Georgia by 16.5, four and a half points better than the market, and I'm passing. Georgia scored 20 at Alabama and 24 against Auburn in its last two games. I'd be paying for a reputation, and my spreads of ten or more are 2-4 this season. Aaron Philo is back at quarterback for Florida after a shoulder injury. PASS.

No. 1 Miami at North Carolina (Miami -14, O/U 53): Fair is Miami by 18.5, and I'd enjoy this bet far too much. Readers know my feelings about the arrangement in Chapel Hill, and a bet that runs with them needs a cleaner case. North Carolina has played every game close. Its worst loss is 37-26 to Notre Dame, and last week it lost to Syracuse in overtime. Miami can win by two touchdowns without beating this number. PASS.

No. 5 Notre Dame vs. Navy, in Foxboro (Notre Dame -30.5, O/U 56.5): I love Navy, and fair says the Midshipmen get nearly four points more than they need. But Navy's defense rates 30.4 and gave up 49 to North Texas last week. Love plus a modest edge is the bet I lost in Nashville. PASS.

Northwestern at Oregon (-3.5, O/U 47.5): Oregon fired its offensive coordinator this week after scoring 15, 17 and 10 in its last three. The total has already dropped two points. No bet.

Minnesota at No. 4 Indiana (-20.5, O/U 41): GameDay is in Bloomington. Fair and the market agree within two points. No bet.

"Desire without knowledge is not good; and whoever acts hastily, blunders." - Proverbs 19:2

Sister Immaculata has been on that rock for four evenings now, and as far as I know she hasn't bought anything.

She isn't short of desire. You can hear it from the path, in whatever language that is. She keeps saying "Nothing yet," and she's right to. She knows what she's looking for, and she hasn't seen it yet.

That's this week's card. Five sides on my board had fair numbers four points or more off the market, and I'm betting none of them. Two I traded for the total in the same game. The other three each had a reason I could name: a quarterback the rating hasn't seen hurt, a favorite that's stopped scoring, and a coach in Chapel Hill I'd enjoy watching lose for all the wrong reasons. The desire was there every time. The knowledge wasn't.

The proverb isn't against wanting things. It's against wanting them faster than you understand them. I'd rather put three bets on the Board that I understand than six that I only want.

I come into Week 9 at 20-11 overall (+7.18u). Totals are still carrying the season at 11-5 (+5.00u), with the unders 8-4, and spreads are 9-6 (+2.18u). I'm 1-1 on games involving LSU, who are off, which is the only way I'll stay that way this week.

The Picks:

Games I'm Watching Without Betting:

Three bets, two totals and one side, and the two totals make the same argument, so I've priced them as one argument and not two. I passed five sides where fair was four or more off the market, and Monday will grade every one.

Sister Bernadette came along the bluff path on her way to Compline while I was waiting my turn at the Rock. Immaculata was still on it, phone lit, muttering. Bernadette stopped and listened for a moment with no expression at all.

"Has she found one?" she asked me.

"Nothing yet."

"Good," said Bernadette. "The roof first." Then she went in to pray, and the roofers' ladders stood against the sacristy wall in the last of the light, and I waited a little longer for the Rock.

May all teams play with honor, may all players stay healthy, and may we remember on All Hallows' Eve that every young man under a helmet on Saturday, starter or backup, five-star or walk-on, is somebody's saint in the making.

In faith, football, and things not yet bought,

Sister Mary Catherine, OSB
Malibu Convent of the Pacific Waves

P.S. - The seedlings went back down to the catacombs on Wednesday, trays, lights, timer and all. The corridor between the refectory and the chapel stairs is a corridor again. Sister Margaret has asked, unprompted, whether she'll still be needed to check on them daily, since a seedling drifts. Sister Agnes said she'd let her know.